President Trump on Wednesday sent the Senate his nomination of former Federal Reserve governor Kevin Warsh to be the U.S. central bank's next chair, according to a notice on the White House website. Markets reacted explosively, with traders pricing a near-certainty that the Senate will receive the nomination before March 13 at 99¢, up from just 28¢. The wider bet on before-April timing also soared to 99¢ from 55¢, generating massive volume of 386,697 shares.

Yet confirmation faces political headwinds. Sen. Thom Tillis, a North Carolina Republican on the committee, has said he will oppose confirming Warsh until a criminal investigation into Powell is resolved. With slim Republican margins on the Banking Committee, this stance could derail the nomination despite formal submission. The market's aggressive pricing implies traders see the timing mechanics as more certain than the ultimate confirmation outcome.