Turkey's opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) delivered a stunning electoral defeat to President Erdogan's AKP in March 2024, winning nearly 38% of the national vote compared to AKP's 35% — the first time Erdogan's party lost the popular vote since coming to power. The Kalshi market initially priced CHP's chances at just 16¢, reflecting widespread skepticism that the opposition could overcome Erdogan's two-decade dominance. But traders who watched the opposition sweep Turkey's five largest cities, including Istanbul where Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu won by the highest margin for an Istanbul mayor in 40 years, drove odds to 98¢ as the scale of the defeat became clear. The results positioned Imamoglu as Erdogan's likely challenger for the presidency in 2028, marking what analysts called the end of Erdogan's political invincibility.