Prediction markets are pricing a 90¢ probability that a Trump Cabinet member will exit before September 2026, up 23¢ from yesterday. While Trump's Cabinet has seen no turnover in its first year — unusual compared to his first term — recent reporting suggests growing internal tensions.

Media reports highlight "dramas" ranging from Attorney General Pam Bondi's Epstein files missteps to staffing issues at RFK Jr.'s HHS, with White House sources identifying Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem and Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer as potential candidates for departure.

The 90¢ odds reflect traders' view that the unprecedented Cabinet stability of Trump's second-term honeymoon period is unlikely to continue much longer, with the administration facing mounting pressures as it approaches the midterm election cycle.