The Texas Republican Senate primary is tightening dramatically in its final days, with prediction markets showing Ken Paxton's margin of victory above 9% falling to 33¢ from 43¢ (-10¢). The move suggests traders are losing confidence in Paxton's early frontrunner status just days before the March 3 primary.

Recent polling from the University of Texas at Tyler shows incumbent John Cornyn leading with 41% versus Paxton's 35%, a reversal from earlier surveys that showed Paxton ahead. However, University of Houston polling still gives Paxton a 38% to 31% lead over Cornyn, highlighting the race's volatility. With three major candidates splitting the vote, the race appears headed for a May runoff if no candidate reaches 50%. The market's repricing reflects growing uncertainty about whether Paxton's Trump-aligned insurgent campaign can overcome Cornyn's establishment backing and superior fundraising.