Today is primary election day in Texas, with incumbent Senator John Cornyn facing Attorney General Ken Paxton and Rep. Wesley Hunt in the Republican primary. The market is pricing in a surprisingly strong showing for Paxton — odds on him winning by 9% or more jumped to 41¢ from 18¢, a 23¢ move that suggests traders expect a decisive victory rather than a narrow contest.

The Real Clear Politics average of polls between Feb. 13 and 27 shows Attorney General Ken Paxton leading incumbent Sen. John Cornyn 40% to 36.3%, with Rep. Wesley Hunt trailing in third with 15.5%. Yet the market movement suggests something beyond what polls indicated — perhaps internal data or late momentum that traders are detecting. Hunt's presence in the race all but guarantees a May 26 runoff, but the margin market is betting Paxton's first-round performance will be commanding enough to signal his ultimate victory in what many see as a proxy battle for the soul of the Republican Party.