Taiwan's prediction markets are pricing in severe political instability as President Lai Ching-te's approval ratings continue declining amid a deadlocked government and banned social media app controversy. The market implies a 93¢ chance he'll be out as President before July 1, 2026—a massive swing from 9¢ just 24 hours earlier. Lai's government faces a Constitutional Court paralyzed by opposition blocking his judicial nominees and failed mass recall campaigns against opposition legislators that backfired politically. With Taiwan's Constitutional Court unable to function and local elections approaching in 2026, the opposition KMT-TPP coalition controlling 14 of 22 local governments appears to be gaining leverage over the embattled president.