Swalwell Campaign Implodes as Allegations Surface
California governor frontrunner sees support evaporate amid sexual assault claims.
Eric Swalwell's frontrunner bid for California governor collapsed Friday as sexual assault allegations prompted top Democrats to withdraw support and call for his exit from the race. Markets reflected the dramatic shift: Swalwell's implied probability of advancing from the primary plummeted from 67¢ to 17¢ within minutes of the allegations breaking. The exodus was swift and comprehensive — U.S. Sen. Adam Schiff, House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries, former Speaker Nancy Pelosi, and powerful labor unions all pulled their endorsements. Tom Steyer emerged as the primary beneficiary, with his odds jumping from 26¢ to 60¢ as money fled Swalwell's collapsing campaign.
Market data sourced from Kalshi. Odds reflect prices at time of analysis and may have changed.