The market is recalibrating Supreme Court retirement odds as political pressure mounts. Clarence Thomas to resign during Trump's term dropped from 46¢ to 22¢, while markets now price in 62¢ odds Trump confirms exactly one justice—up 26 cents. Both Thomas, 77, and Alito, 76, face speculation about retiring to ensure conservative successors, with the 2026 midterms creating urgency before potential Republican Senate losses. The shifts suggest traders are betting Thomas may hold on while Alito becomes the more likely departure. Trump has said he's "prepared" to appoint up to three justices, which would make him the first president since Eisenhower to personally appoint a Supreme Court majority.