Steve Hilton's odds to lead the next qualifying poll in California's governor race have rocketed from 12¢ to 65¢ as recent polling shows the Trump-endorsed Republican maintaining a narrow lead over a splintered Democratic field. An Emerson College poll found Hilton leading with roughly 17 percent support, while fellow GOP hopeful Chad Bianco and Democratic billionaire Tom Steyer tied for second at 14 percent.

The withdrawal of former Democratic Representative Eric Swalwell after allegations of sexual assault has added further volatility, with Swalwell denying the accusations but suspending his campaign and resigning from Congress. In the first poll since Swalwell's departure, Democrats now split their vote between Tom Steyer (20%), Xavier Becerra (19%), and Katie Porter (15%). This Democratic fragmentation in deep-blue California creates an unusual opening for a Republican candidate, with President Trump endorsing Hilton in April.