Right-leaning candidate Rafael Lopez Aliaga is leading Peru's presidential race with 23.4% of the votes, early results of the official vote count showed Sunday. Center-left candidate Jorge Nieto trailed with 16.4% of votes, with 5% of ballots counted. A third candidate, right-wing Keiko Fujimori, had 16.1% of the votes. The market moved decisively, with López Aliaga surging to 84¢ from 23¢ for second place, while his potential matchup against Keiko Fujimori jumped to 82¢ from 22¢.

Rafael Lopez Aliaga, a chubby-cheeked business magnate and former mayor who goes by the nickname "Porky", had been the race's frontrunner since August. He ran a far-right campaign, expressing support for the United States bombing of alleged drug-smuggling boats and proposing that the US military intervene in Peru to capture gang leaders. The dramatic shift reflects how prediction markets can capture real-time momentum that traditional polling missed, with over 10,000 shares traded across Peru-related contracts as results rolled in.