Iran was struck by joint US-Israeli military operations on February 28, 2026, targeting regime change with Ali Khamenei killed in attacks on his official residence. Traders initially priced abolishing the Supreme Leader position at 62¢, but that crashed to 16¢ as Iran formed a provisional leadership council comprising reformist President Masoud Pezeshkian, hardline judiciary chief Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i, and Ayatollah Alireza Arafi to govern while the Assembly of Experts selects a successor. Alireza Arafi emerged as the surprising frontrunner, surging from 2¢ to 41¢ as traders bet on the provisional council member's inside track. The new leader must be a male cleric with political competence and loyalty to the Islamic Republic, potentially excluding reformist clerics, explaining why markets pivoted toward establishment figures rather than regime collapse.