On 28 February 2026, Khamenei was assassinated in a series of airstrikes conducted by Israel and the United States, triggering Iran's first succession crisis in nearly four decades. Markets are now pricing Mojtaba Khamenei, the Supreme Leader's second son, at 70¢ — up a staggering 57¢ — to become Iran's next leader.

Iran's Assembly of Experts elected Ali Khamenei's son Mojtaba as the next Supreme Leader under pressure from the Revolutionary Guards, according to opposition sources. The succession represents a significant departure from the founding principles of the 1979 Islamic Revolution. The Islamic Republic was built largely as a rejection of the Pahlavi monarchy's hereditary system, which the elder Khamenei once described as a "wrong and unreasonable tradition." Traders are betting that despite these ideological concerns, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) reportedly applied "heavy pressure" on the Assembly of Experts to back Mojtaba. The IRGC views him as a reliable commander-in-chief who will maintain the "Axis of Resistance" strategy.