Hungary's Orbán falls as TISZA wins supermajority
Markets correctly priced Viktor Orbán's historic defeat, with TISZA securing the two-thirds majority needed for constitutional changes.
The prediction market captured a seismic shift in European politics as TISZA won 138 of 199 parliamentary seats, ending Viktor Orbán's 16-year rule. The market for "Above 135 seats" surged from 46¢ to 97¢ as results confirmed the opposition's landslide.
Traders who bet on TISZA securing "Above 140 seats" saw that market crash from 98¢ to 50¢, suggesting the supermajority was massive but not quite that overwhelming. The two-thirds majority gives TISZA the power to amend Hungary's constitution, potentially reversing much of Orbán's authoritarian legacy. The defeat removes Putin's main EU ally and sends shockwaves through Western right-wing circles.
Market data sourced from Kalshi. Odds reflect prices at time of analysis and may have changed.