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Market data as of

Hungarian markets signal TISZA landslide victory

Traders dramatically repriced Hungary's election as TISZA is projected to secure a two-thirds parliamentary majority, ending Viktor Orbán's 16-year rule.

With 97.35 percent of precincts counted, Magyar's centre-right party secured 138 seats in the 199-seat parliament on 53.6 percent of the vote, while nationalist Orban's Fidesz took just 55 seats with 37.8 percent, triggering massive market moves. The TISZA seats market surged to 98¢ from 34¢ for above 132 seats, while Fidesz seats collapsed to 1¢ from 74¢ for above 60 seats, reflecting a complete reversal from pre-election polling.

The centre-right Tisza party's two-thirds majority in parliament would allow it to amend the constitution, providing the supermajority needed to reverse much of Orbán's institutional changes. The margin-of-victory market priced TISZA at 88¢ for a 12-15% victory margin, while the Fidesz vs TISZA matchup reached 82¢, indicating traders saw the outcome as decisive rather than close. Volume exceeded 50,000 across multiple related contracts as the historic political shift unfolded.

Market data sourced from Kalshi. Odds reflect prices at time of analysis and may have changed.