The market is pricing a dramatically hawkish shift in Federal Reserve policy, with consensus now seeing at most two rate cuts for 2026 and no cuts priced for 2027. Kalshi traders drove the odds of rates staying above 0.25% after April 2027 down to 54¢ from 95¢, while simultaneously betting that rates will stay higher through early 2027. Fed Chair Jerome Powell's assertion that policy doesn't appear "significantly restrictive right now" has reset expectations, with the March 2026 meeting emerging as a critical inflection point. The repricing reflects growing concern that fiscal stimulus and persistent inflation will keep rates elevated longer than previously anticipated, with inflation expectations for 2027 falling sharply across multiple price points.