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Market data as of

Fed Rate Bets Signal Hawkish Shift

Traders dramatically increase odds of higher rates through 2027, reflecting persistent inflation concerns.

Federal Reserve rate expectations have undergone a dramatic hawkish shift, with April 2027 rate projections surging across the board. Markets now price 92¢ odds that rates will exceed 1.75% (up from 49¢) and 92¢ for rates above 2.25% (up from 70¢). The repricing reflects growing conviction that the Fed's December dot plot projecting just 50 basis points of cuts through 2027 may prove optimistic, with PCE inflation expected to remain at 2.4% through 2026. Even more striking: bets on rates above 3.50% collapsed from 86¢ to 47¢, suggesting traders see a narrow landing zone around 2-3% rather than the higher rates once expected. With futures markets pricing little likelihood of cuts until June and expectations for the new Fed chair to bring rates toward 3-3.25%, the market is positioning for a prolonged period of restrictive monetary policy.

Market data sourced from Kalshi. Odds reflect prices at time of analysis and may have changed.