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Market data as of

Fed Doves Suddenly Price Hawkish Turn

Rates markets just flipped script as traders now bet the Fed goes higher, not lower.

Fed futures markets just delivered one of the most dramatic reversals in months as traders pivot from expecting rate cuts to pricing in aggressive hikes. The Fed held rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% on Wednesday, but markets are now aggressively repricing the path ahead. April 2027 markets collapsed from 90¢ to 18¢ for hitting 195+ consecutive games—a stunning -72¢ crash—while odds of the Fed going above 2.00% by April 2027 exploded from 27¢ to 95¢. The reversal comes as oil prices surge due to the Iran conflict, raising concerns that inflation could accelerate before returning to the Fed's 2% target. Markets are abandoning bets on 2026 rate cuts as the central bank faces rising oil prices and a string of firm inflation readings, with traders now pricing a much more hawkish Federal Reserve.

Market data sourced from Kalshi. Odds reflect prices at time of analysis and may have changed.