The FDA approved AstraZeneca's Baxfendy (baxdrostat) today as a first-in-class aldosterone synthase inhibitor for hard-to-treat hypertension, sending prediction markets into a frenzy of post-approval settlement. The market implies traders knew this was coming — odds rocketed to 97¢ from just 14¢ yesterday, suggesting inside knowledge of the regulatory decision.

AstraZeneca has previously said that baxdrostat could become a $5 billion-a-year product, targeting the massive unmet need among patients whose blood pressure doesn't respond to current medications. In the US, about 23 million patients are uncontrolled despite being on two or more medicines for hypertension, creating a significant market opportunity for this novel mechanism of action.