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Market data as of

FBI Director Patel survival odds collapse

Markets now price massive 79-point reversal as exit appears imminent before May.

The market implies Kash Patel's time as FBI Director is nearly over, with his May departure odds crashing from 99¢ to 20¢ — an extraordinary 79-cent reversal that signals traders see his survival as highly unlikely. The dramatic shift follows multiple controversies including Iran-linked hackers breaching his personal email and reports of "active discussions" about his exit in the White House. The timing aligns with Attorney General Pam Bondi's firing Thursday, marking the second major Cabinet departure after Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem's ouster last month. Trump's frustration with both officials' inability to deliver prosecutions of his political enemies appears to be driving the administration shakeup. Former FBI agent Kyle Seraphin indicated Thursday could bring Patel's removal, citing two sources who suggested Trump wants to make the decision "look like it's his idea and not while he is under pressure."

Market data sourced from Kalshi. Odds reflect prices at time of analysis and may have changed.