Markets are pricing in a 83¢ chance the Supreme Court will overturn 90-year-old protections for independent agencies after December oral arguments strongly signaled the conservative majority would side with Trump. Trump fired FTC Commissioner Rebecca Slaughter in March 2025 without cause, asserting the agency's removal restrictions violate presidential authority.

A Trump victory would significantly increase presidential power over roughly two dozen independent agencies that Congress designed to be insulated from political pressure. Trump's legal team argued the FTC now exercises executive powers that require presidential accountability, while Slaughter's attorney countered that firing was illegal under current law. The dramatic price swing from 17¢ to 83¢ reflects traders' assessment that this case could fundamentally restructure federal governance.