Mark Carney became Prime Minister in March 2025 after Justin Trudeau's resignation, leading Liberals to 169 seats in April's election—just three short of a majority. The market surge from 62¢ to 92¢ reflects recent floor crossings, with another NDP defector bringing Liberals to 170 seats and two more needed for majority control. Carney has called April 13 by-elections in three districts including two Toronto-area "safe seats" for Liberals, with victory in two of three races sufficient to secure majority government. Traders are betting the former Bank of Canada governor can capitalize on his anti-Trump stance and recent Conservative defections.