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Market data as of

Bears Poised for Cross-Border Stadium Move

Chicago relocation odds flip as Illinois negotiations stall while Indiana fast-tracks $5 billion Hammond deal

Indiana Governor Mike Braun signed legislation creating financial framework for a Bears stadium in Hammond on February 26, with the Bears committing $2 billion toward the project while Illinois talks hit roadblocks over property tax incentives. The "do not relocate" option collapsed from 46¢ to 7¢ as the Bears called Indiana's legislative advancement "the most meaningful step forward in our stadium planning efforts to date." Markets now price a 53¢ chance the team moves elsewhere in Illinois, likely Arlington Heights, versus 43¢ for Indiana. The Hammond site near Wolf Lake straddles the Illinois-Indiana border along Interstate 90, keeping the team within the broader Chicago metropolitan area — explaining why traders view this as relocation rather than a complete departure from the region.

Market data sourced from Kalshi. Odds reflect prices at time of analysis and may have changed.