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Anduril IPO Odds Surge on Manufacturing Milestone

Defense tech startup's May IPO odds jump 42¢ to 51¢ as investors bet on accelerated timeline.

The market is pricing in a dramatically accelerated Anduril IPO timeline, with odds for an announcement before May 2026 surging from 9¢ to 51¢. The company announced in January 2025 that it would be building out a large manufacturing facility in Columbus, Ohio, with the company planning to start manufacturing products there in July 2026. Anduril's founder, Palmer Luckey, has acknowledged this is an aggressive timeline, but he said that the company wants to IPO after proving that the company can pull that off. The defense contractor has been raising capital at a $28B valuation as of February 2025 while securing major government contracts. Traders appear convinced the Ohio facility timeline could trigger an earlier-than-expected public debut, with the related June timeline also climbing 15¢ to 17¢.

Market data sourced from Kalshi. Odds reflect prices at time of analysis and may have changed.

Anduril IPO Odds Surge on Manufacturing Milestone | Future Signal