The prediction market implies Anthropic leads the race to go public, with its odds rising 23¢ to 48¢ while OpenAI gained 17¢ to 55¢. This near-even split masks dramatic developments behind the scenes. A Reuters report from November said that OpenAI was planning an IPO of up to $1 trillion as early as late 2026, though the report came mere days after the AI giant completed its recapitalization process to go from a non-profit to a for-profit.

According to the Financial Times, Anthropic has engaged Wilson Sonsini to begin IPO-related preparations and is sitting at a 72% chance according to betting platforms, having taken several steps commonly associated with public-market readiness in 2025. The $2,756 volume on Anthropic markets signals heavy conviction among traders. Markets assign just 51.5% odds to an OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2026, despite visible IPO preparations, while Anthropic has begun legal IPO preparations and is on track to reach breakeven by 2028.