Fed Rate Shock: Markets Price Lower-for-Longer

The Federal Reserve's March decision to hold rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% has triggered massive reversals across rate markets, with traders now pricing in a fundamentally different trajectory than just yesterday. The Fed maintained rates at 3.5%-3.75% in March 2026, citing elevated inflation concerns and geopolitical uncertainty from the Iran conflict. Markets betting on rates above 0.75% by April 2027 surged to 97¢ from just 20¢, a stunning 77-cent swing reflecting traders' growing conviction that the central bank now expects only a single rate cut in 2026, down from earlier projections of multiple reductions. The reversal spans the entire rate curve, with even above-0.25% bets jumping to 98¢. This isn't just about 2026 — the market is pricing sustained higher rates well into 2027, suggesting traders believe the energy price shock from the Iran conflict will reignite inflationary forces the Fed has been battling since 2022.